Abstract
Objectives
Providing sensible estimates of the mean incubation time for COVID-19 is important yet complex. This study aims to provide sensible estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID-19 by capitalizing on available estimates reported in the literature and exploring different ways to accommodate heterogeneity involved in the reported studies.
Methods
Online databases between January 1 of 2020 and May 20 of 2021 are first searched to obtain estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID-19 from available studies, and meta-analyses are then conducted to generate synthetic estimates. Heterogeneity of the studies is examined via the use of Cochran's Q statistic and Higgin's & Thompson's I2 statistic, and subgroup analyses are conducted using mixed effects models. The publication bias issue is assessed using the funnel plot and Egger's test.
Results
Using all those reported mean incubation estimates for COVID-19, the mean incubation time is estimated to be 6.43 days with a 95% confidence interval (CI) (5.90, 6.96), and using all those reported mean incubation estimates together with those transformed median incubation estimates, the estimated mean incubation time is 6.07 days with a 95% CI (5.70,6.45).
Conclusions
The reported estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID-19 vary considerably due to multiple reasons, including heterogeneity and publication bias. To alleviate these issues, we take different angles to provide a sensible estimate of the mean incubation time of COVID-19. Our analyses show that the mean incubation time of COVID-19 between January 1 of 2020 and May 20 of 2021 ranges from 5.68 days to 8.30 days.
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